Theory of Change (ToC)

Tool description

Theory of change (ToC) is a conceptual framework that outlines the causal pathways through which interventions are expected to bring about desired outcomes.

The tool provides materials and guidelines for collaborative work in constructing a ToC based on a shared vision, considering the views of different stakeholders. It guides participants in understanding current conditions, strategically planning activities, and identifying outputs and outcomes. The tool promotes inclusivity, ownership, and commitment among stakeholders, ensuring a logical and measurable framework that accommodates flexibility and iteration. Ultimately, it supports the documentation and communication of the developed theory of change.

Complexity

Complexity explanation

It can be implemented by cities on their own with local knowledge and some knowledge of climate risks. However, developing a ToC for complex systems can be challenging, especially when stakeholders have limited experience or knowledge on the context.

City Hub experiences

Not yet applied

Benefits of using the tool

Main benefit of the tool is that it helps to identify solutions to effectively address the causes of problems that hinder progress and guide decisions on which approach should be taken.

Furthermore, creating a shared vision within a ToC fosters alignment and collaboration among stakeholders, enhancing the effectiveness of adaptation planning by ensuring collective understanding and commitment to common goals.

Cost/effort for implementation

The workshop runs over one or two days. However, the material preparation and post-processing of the workshop material may depend on the complexity of the system as well as the stakeholder engagement efforts. This may require between extra 3 working days (In-house/external facilitation, limited data collection, and fewer stakeholders, simple output representation) to weeks (external facilitation, extensive stakeholder engagement, large number of information to be revised, more sophisticated output representation.
The effort does not account for key performance indicator identification in case there is a need to design robust M&E frameworks of outputs, outcomes and impacts.

Triple-A phases

The tool can be used in the following Triple-A phase:

  • Ambition: It allows to define ambitious and aspirational vision and goals for the future. Often this involves creating a clear narrative about the desired future state.
  • Action: It provides a structured framework to articulate this narrative about the future, breaking down the vision into actionable steps (actions).

Guidance

Click here to access the User´s guide ToC, Navigating transformation towards a desired vision 

Contact

Saioa Zorita
saioa.zorita@tecnalia.com
Tecnalia

More information

More information coming soon…

Complementary tools

The tool is complementary to other REACHOUT analysis tools (e.g. Climate Impact Diagrams, Thermal Assessment Tool) as it helps to understand the problems and challenges that a city faces.

It is also complementary to REACHOUT action tools (e.g. Adaptation libraries) that identify possible activities to reach the change.

The climate story of Gdynia​

During an extreme rainfall event, Jan watches in fear as water rises dangerously close to flooding his apartment. His experience highlights the urgent need for climate adaptation in Gdynia, inspiring the community to take action and build a more resilient future together.